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President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Mr Guryev, you head the Association of Fertiliser Producers.

President of the Russian Association of Fertiliser Producers Andrei Guryev: Yes.

Vladimir Putin: How many members are there? If I recall correctly, there are 29 enterprises and 13 organisations.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, 110,000 people.

Vladimir Putin: So, you are well acquainted with the situation in the industry. What is your assessment of it?

Andrei Guryev: Thank you, Mr President, first of all for this meeting. Allow me to briefly go through the presentation.

Regarding the industry: it is dynamically growing. Once again, I have come to this meeting with a new record: 63 million tonnes were produced in 2024. In 2025, we plan to produce 65 million tonnes of mineral fertilisers. That is, since 2013, this represents a 60 percent growth.

Today, we are the world’s second-largest producer of mineral fertilisers after China, but we are the largest exporter. We account for approximately 18–20 percent of the global mineral fertiliser market. The plan by 2030 is to increase this share to 25 percent.

Our success is primarily linked to the major investments made in recent years. The company is implementing a vast number of new projects. This includes the construction of new plants – one of which you opened at PhosAgro’s Volkhov site last year, a million-tonne-capacity facility. New potash mines are also being developed, as well as a new enterprise producing nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea, nitrate, and others.

Speaking of the growth we have achieved, it is important to note that we have expanded in the nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium segments. For instance, in nitrogen fertilisers, we have grown by 50 percent over ten years; in phosphorus fertilisers, we have increased by 6.6 million tonnes – practically 60 percent; and in potassium, new capacities were introduced by EuroChem – 70 percent. Truly, we see growth across all basic types of mineral fertilisers.

Vladimir Putin: Is there full understanding with the Ministry of Agriculture?

Andrei Guryev: Yes, we have full understanding. We work together; we are partners. Certainly, the growth in consumption by Russian agriculture and the increased demand from exports – since we stand on two legs – creates a strong dynamic for continued investment. Indeed, today in 2025, there are certain questions regarding economic growth…

Vladimir Putin: And harvest growth.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, and harvest growth. But the trend is generally positive, and the outcome, I am confident, will be very favourable.

Regarding exports, I would like to note some additional aspects. Indeed, for the past three years, we have been operating under rather challenging sanctions, faced with tough economic environment. We were perhaps among the first to face certain tariff restrictions.

The United States has introduced compensatory tariffs, mainly on phosphate fertilisers, which forced us to exit that market. Additionally, as a large consumer, the United States has introduced tariffs on Chinese and Moroccan products. Their production has essentially occupied their own market, which, like any tariff, resulted in…

Vladimir Putin: Price hikes.

Andrei Guryev: Price hikes. Our industry has managed to redirect exports to other markets. For example, I want to note that our mineral fertiliser exports to India have grown fourfold. In Africa…

Vladimir Putin: There was a direct request about that from India’s leadership, the Prime Minister [Narendra Modi].

Andrei Guryev: Yes, [First Deputy Prime Minister] Mr Manturov and I met after the BRICS meeting that I also attended. I would like to report that the request from the Indian leadership has been fulfilled. Our companies delivered 1.2 million tonnes of mineral fertilisers.

Vladimir Putin: Thank you very much.

Andrei Guryev: No tariffs can intimidate us as the market is vast. Most importantly, we are moving to the BRICS market, which currently accounts for almost 50 percent of the total mineral fertiliser consumption, and this market will continue to grow.

I would like to return to the current situation and talk about Europe. Europe initially restricted its imports of cheap Russian gas, which led to the halt of its gas and petrochemical industries.

Vladimir Putin: Not only that but also glass production. There is an entire chain of negative consequences.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, there has been an entire chain of negative consequences that, however, boosted the demand for Russian mineral fertilisers as their own production facilities were closed.

Today, Brussels is discussing a complete ban on Russia’s mineral fertiliser supplies – which are known to be the most environmentally friendly mineral fertilisers – to the European market. We understand that the political decision has already been made and Europe will completely drop Russian fertiliser imports within three years.

Vladimir Putin: From an economic standpoint and in view of their own agriculture’s interests, this is completely ridiculous, in my opinion.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, at this point it is hard to be surprised by anything anymore. It will have a destructive effect in Europe, where the prices of mineral fertilisers are already the highest in the world, and the ban on Russia’s mineral fertiliser supplies… Well, Russia accounts for 30 percent of imported fertilisers in Europe, which imports 17 million tonnes, including 5.5 million tonnes from Russia. In other words, it will be very difficult to find another supplier to replace this amount. It is not surprising that farmers’ associations are protesting against this. They also understand that the logistics…

Vladimir Putin: As I see it, this will ultimately increase food prices.

Andrei Guryev: Exactly. The rise in prices of mineral fertilisers will ultimately lead to a decrease in harvests. Europe may soon turn from a net grain exporter into a net importer of grain, possibly from Ukraine. You probably remember the history of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, under which grain was supposed to be delivered to southern countries…

Vladimir Putin: Yes, but it was sent to Europe instead.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, it was delivered to Europe. In principle, the process has been initiated, and we can see the wheels turning. The example of the United States and its tariffs has shown that the price of mineral fertilisers can grow by $100 or $150, or by 20 to 30 percent. As a result, sustainable European farmers will either have to decrease sowing areas or request subsidies.

Vladimir Putin: Where will they find the necessary amounts?

Andrei Guryev: That’s exactly what I mean.

Vladimir Putin: The issue is not the prices but the number of [fertiliser] producers, which is limited in the world.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, it is. In terms of producers, I would say that Russia is the largest fertiliser producer. Actually, China is the largest producer, but it sells its fertilisers on the domestic market. Russia is the second largest producer, with 18–20 percent of the global market. The next largest producer of phosphate fertilisers is Morocco. The United States, Canada and Saudi Arabia are the largest producers of phosphate and potassium fertilisers.

Vladimir Putin: Potassium fertilisers are also produced in Belarus.

Andrei Guryev: Yes, they certainly are. Therefore, finding a new provider of such a large amount of fertilisers will, first of all, hike up prices, primarily in logistics, because this will involve a change in logistics, and all this will ultimately affect farmers. The production costs of mineral fertilisers are the highest in Europe as it is.

But we are ready for this. We have seen such things happen before, which is why we are actively working with consumers in the BRICS countries. I have already reported on India.

Vladimir Putin: Is the difference between domestic and export prices 15 percent?

Andrei Guryev: Yes. According to the latest Rosstat data for the past three years, when the industry decided voluntarily to fix the prices of mineral fertilisers after a hike provoked by the dramatic growth of gas prices, the difference between domestic and export prices has been set and is maintained at 15 percent.

Vladimir Putin: I see.

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